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Basis Risk

The risk that the spread between the futures price and the spot price may widen or narrow

Written by

CFI Team

Published April 24, 2023

Updated July 7, 2023

What is Basis Risk?

Basis risk is defined as the inherent risk a trader takes when hedging a position by taking a contrary position in a derivative of the asset, such as a futures contract. Basis risk is accepted in an attempt to hedge away price risk.

As an example, if the current spot price of gold is $1190 and the price of gold in the June gold futures contract is $1195, then the basis, the differential, is $5.00. Basis risk is the risk that the futures price might not move in normal, steady correlation with the price of the underlying asset, and that this fluctuation in the basis may negate the effectiveness of a hedging strategy employed to minimize a trader’s exposure to potential loss. The price spread (difference) between the cash price and the futures price may either widen or narrow.

Hedging Strategies

A hedging strategy is one where a trader adopts a second market position for the purpose of minimizing the risk exposure in the initial market position. The strategy may involve taking a futures position contrary to one’s market position in the underlying asset. For example, a trader might sell futures short to offset a long, buy position in the underlying asset. The idea behind the strategy is that at least part of any potential loss in the underlying asset position will be offset by profits in the hedge futures position.

When large investments are involved, basis risk can have a significant effect on eventual profits or losses realized. Even a modest change in the basis can make the difference between bagging a profit and suffering a loss. The inherently imperfect correlation between cash and futures prices means there is potential for both excess gains and excess losses. This risk that is specifically associated with a futures hedging strategy is the basis risk.

Components of Basis Risk

Risk can never be altogether eliminated in investments. However, risk can be at least somewhat mitigated. Thus, when a trader enters into a futures contract to hedge against possible price fluctuations, they are at least partly changing the inherent “price risk” into another form of risk, known as “basis risk”. Basis risk is considered a systematic, or market, risk. Systematic risk is the risk arising from the inherent uncertainty of the markets. Unsystematic, or non-systematic, risk, which is the risk associated with a specific investment. The risk of a general economic turndown, or depression, is an example of systematic risk. The risk that Apple may lose market share to a competitor is unsystematic risk.

Between the time a futures position is initiated and closed out, the spread between the futures price and the spot price may widen or narrow. As the visual representation below shows, the normal tendency is for the basis spread to narrow. As the futures contract nears expiration, the futures price usually converges toward the spot price. This logically happens as the futures contract becomes less and less “future” in nature. However, this common narrowing of the basis spread is not guaranteed to occur.

Hedging with Futures Contracts

Suppose a rice farmer wants to hedge against possible price fluctuations in the market. For example, in December, he decides to enter into a short-sell position in a futures contract in order to limit his exposure to a possible decline in the cash price prior to the time when he will sell his crop in the cash market. Assume that the spot price of rice is $50 and the futures price for a March futures contract is $55. The basis, then, is $5.00 (the futures price minus the spot price). In this situation the market is in contango, i.e., the spot price is less than the futures price.

Suppose the farmer decides to lift the hedge in February, due to falling prices. At the time he decides to close out his market positions, the spot price is $47 and the March futures price is $49. He sells his rice crop at $47 per unit and lifts his hedge by buying futures to close out his short sell position at $49. In this case, his $3 per unit loss in the cash market is more than offset by his $6 gain from short selling futures ($55 – $49). Therefore, his net sales revenue becomes $53 ($47 cash price + $6 futures profit). The farmer has enjoyed extra profits as a result of the basis narrowing from $5 to $2.

If the basis remained constant, then the farmer would not gain any extra profit, nor incur any additional loss. His $3.00 profit in futures would have exactly offset the $3.00 loss in the cash market. It’s important to note, however, that while his short sell hedge in futures didn’t generate any additional profit, it did successfully protect him from the price decline in the cash market. If he had not taken the futures position, then he would have suffered a $3.00 per unit loss.

The other possible scenario would be where the cash market price declined while the futures price increased. Suppose when the farmer closed out his short sell futures hedge, the cash price was $47 but the futures price was $57. Then he would have lost $3.00 per unit in the cash market and lost an additional $2.00 in his short futures trade ($57 – $55). His net sales revenue would be only $45 per unit. Why the extra loss? Because in this instance the basis widened, as opposed to narrowing or remaining constant. It was the opposite of the basis pattern the farmer was looking for to successfully hedge his cash crop. In this case, the farmer took the basis risk and lost.

It’s also worth noting that a buyer of rice, looking to hedge against a possible cash market increase in the price of rice, would have bought futures as a hedge. That hedger would realize maximum profit from the third scenario, where the basis widened from $5.00 to $10.00.

Different Types of Basis Risk

Different types include:

Price basis risk: The risk that occurs when the prices of the asset and its futures contract do not move in tandem with each other.

Location basis risk: The risk that arises when the underlying asset is in a different location from the where the futures contract is traded. For example, the basis between actual crude oil sold in Mumbai and crude oil futures traded on a Dubai futures exchange may differ from the basis between Mumbai crude oil and Mumbai-traded crude oil futures.

Calendar basis risk: The selling date of the spot market position may be different from the expiry date of a futures market contract.

Product quality basis risk: When the properties or qualities of the asset are different from that of the asset as represented by the futures contract.

Main Takeaways

Basis risk is the risk that is inherent whenever a trader attempts to hedge a market position in an asset by adopting a contrary position in a derivative of the asset, such as a futures contract. Basis risk is accepted in an attempt to hedge away price risk. If the basis remains constant until the trader closes out both of his positions, then he will have successfully hedged his market position. If the basis has changed significantly, then he will likely experience extra profits or increased losses. Producers looking to hedge their market position will profit from a narrowing basis spread, while buyers will profit from a widening basis.

More Resources

Thank you for reading CFI’s guide on Basis Risk. To prepare for the FMVA curriculum, these additional resources will be helpful:

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What Is Geopolitical Risk, And Why Is It Important?

Boards worldwide follow the same worrying news stories, from conflict to trade wars to political polarisation. Rarely do these events mean good news for businesses. 

As a result, boards should ask themselves important questions about geopolitical risk to ensure they are prepared. 

Let’s dive in:

What is geopolitical risk?

It’s the collection of risks facing companies that stem from conflict or other tensions worldwide. 

If you’re a corporate leader, you’re likely to follow current events closely, so you should automatically know how broad these risks can be.

What are some examples of geopolitical risks?

War, the threat of war, trade wars, blockades, sanctions, political polarisation – all are geopolitical risks that might affect a company’s performance. 

And remember, they don’t have to be global to be impactful. Even localised examples of the above could be enough to threaten a company.

Sometimes, these risks can emerge slowly; these are easier to plan for. Other times, they can occur suddenly, taking markets and stakeholders by surprise, spurring panic and worsening a bad situation.

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What risks have we seen recently?

Examples include: 

The build-up to, and the onset of, the war in Ukraine. This event caused significant shifts in European business behaviour, especially banking, as Russia and its allies were closed off from doing business with the West. 

The supply chain/cost of living crisis; caused by a combination of the Ukraine war, international trade standoffs and COVID-recovery shortages. 

Brexit. Most of the main negotiations are now complete, but this major event created vast amounts of uncertainty, significantly impacting small and large businesses across European borders. 

What dangers does geopolitical risk carry?

Multiple serious dangers. It’s not considered the “number one corporate risk” for nothing. 

If geopolitical risk turns into reality, it can seriously harm a company’s business through increased costs, loss of personnel, limitations on trade, entire markets being cut off and stakeholder panic. 

Companies could rapidly land in highly vulnerable situations if any of these issues begin to surface. 

Even if they don’t surface, and the company avoids the worst geopolitical risks, it can still seriously harm innovation (according to the Harvard Business Review). This might not be a problem in the short term, but it can make the business far less sustainable in the long term.

What should boards do about geopolitical risk?

The biggest trick in managing geopolitical risk is understanding it. There’s usually a lot to unpack. 

Understand your company. Know its mission, market and your role in safeguarding them.

Seek training in governance if you want to improve your skills in this area

Stay tuned to news developments.

Anything and everything that could impact your business’ performance should be monitored. Ensure, as far as possible, that your company is never shocked by a news headline.

Identify, assess, and quantify your geopolitical risk. The same is true for any corporate risk. 

Ensure your company strategy respects geopolitical risk and builds the company towards a point of resilience. For example, if your raw materials come from a nation where severe political violence may occur, consider sourcing elsewhere to mitigate the chance of your entire supply cutting off overnight.

Is The Internet Of Things (Iot) A Security Risk?

IoT device security has long been a source of worry, and as a result, both small- and large-scale assaults have been made possible. Most of these attacks result from straightforward security issues, like using telnet services’ default passwords being retained. The Dutch Radio Communications Agency approached our Dutch facility, Eurofins Cyber Security, for guidance on best enforcing security requirements on IoT devices and their makers.

IoT security will remain a key concern for manufacturers and end users as more and more enterprises, consumers, and government organizations use and rely on IoT applications. In this post, we examine the definition of IoT security, its importance, and the main threats it faces; consumers and government organizations use and rely on IoT applications. This post examines the definition of IoT security, its importance, and the main threats it faces. Additionally, we go over how to secure networks, data, and devices in IoT situations. The development teams that want to guarantee the appropriate security of their IoT projects will find this article useful.

What do IoT devices Mean?

Since the variety of IoT devices makes the IoT’s reach so broad and its security so difficult, we start by defining the “things” in the “Internet of Things.” A key feature of an IoT device is its ability to connect to the internet and communicate with its surroundings by gathering and exchanging data. Devices frequently only have a few specialized functions and a small amount of computational power. IoT can be used and applied to various surroundings in infinite ways because devices come in such a wide variety. Internet of Things security is a collection of methods and procedures for defending against various IoT security intrusions on the physical objects, networks, operations, and technology that make up an IoT ecosystem.

IoT security’s two main objectives are to −

Ensure that all data is securely gathered, processed, stored, and transferred.

Identify and fix IoT component vulnerabilities.

Why is IoT Security Important?

A key factor in cybersecurity is the pervasiveness of smart gadgets. The productivity of an entire firm may suffer if one of these IoT devices has a vulnerability, which could result in expensive data breaches. IoT security is essential for maintaining data security. Sensitive data can be stored in enormous quantities on smart devices, and this data is subject to special cybersecurity requirements. Legal repercussions may result if this data is compromised and not safeguarded.

Risks to the Internet of Things (IoT) Security Most Frequently Occur

Regarding the Internet of Things, attack surfaces, threat vectors, and vulnerabilities have all received a lot of investigation. The Internet of Things poses several risks that could harm both consumers and organizations. We’ll review 11 of the most prevalent Internet of Things security threats so you can take precautions to safeguard your company and its stakeholders.

Faulty Access Control

IoT services should only be available to networks or individuals the owner trusts. Unfortunately, IoT devices frequently fail to enforce this enough. IoT devices often have an unwarranted level of trust in the networks to which they are linked, often requiring no authentication or authorization. Without any conditions, other network-connected devices are likewise trusted. When such gadgets are connected to the Internet, it becomes concerning as anyone can use the device’s services.

Shoddy Physical Protection

Physical security also poses a big danger regarding IoT device security beyond digital security. Sensitive information is frequently stored on consumer and commercial IoT devices. Sensitive audio or video data relating to the business, the house, or the user is connected to or utilized as wireless network passwords. Attackers with physical access to the devices can open them and disable security software by reading the memory components’ data directly.

Inadequate Privacy Protection

Sensitive data is frequently stored on consumer IoT devices. For instance, any wireless Internet of Things device will save the network’s password. Any IoT gadget that collects video or audio may also contain data about a business, a house, or a user.

Botnets

A group of web-connected devices known as a “botnet” is used to steal data, compromise networks, or send spam. Botnets are one of the most significant corporate hazards since they contain malware that gives attackers access to an IoT device and its connection to a company’s network. They tend to be more noticeable in appliances that weren’t initially made securely (smart fridges, for example). These gadgets are always changing and evolving. It is, therefore, vital to keep an eye on their adjustments and threat levels to prevent attacks.

Device management issues and poor visibility

Many IoT devices are still not tracked, monitored, or controlled correctly. Keeping track of devices as they connect and disconnect from the IoT network can become quite challenging. Organizations may be unable to identify possible dangers or even take action if they lack visibility into device status. When we look at the healthcare industry, we can see how these hazards can become fatal. If not adequately protected, IoT pacemakers and defibrillators have the potential to be tampered with. Hackers might purposely drain batteries or give false pulses and shocks. Device management systems must be implemented by organizations to effectively monitor IoT devices and cover all potential points of vulnerability.

Conclusion

It’s critical to consider security in early research and development phases while developing IoT initiatives. The frequent cyberattacks and difficulty finding potential system vulnerabilities make it difficult to guarantee adequate devices, networks, and data security in IoT contexts.

In IoT projects, it can be challenging to provide strong security measures. Implementing security measures may increase a solution’s cost and development time, which is undoubtedly undesirable for enterprises. This is in addition to hitting hardware constraints. Expert IoT software developers and quality assurance specialists with penetration testing experience are needed to create secure IoT devices.

Profitability Ratio: Definition, Types, And Benefits

What is Profitability Ratio?

Profitability ratios are the ratios that offer an insight into a company’s ability to generate profits based on expenses and other costs associated with the generation of revenues in a particular time period. It is important because it represents the final position of a company vis-a-vis its profits.

Profitability ratios are very important for a company. The goal of all businesses in the world is to make profits. Without profit, a company cannot stay competitive in the market. Moreover, when there is a loss instead of a profit, the company should be aware of this. As profits form the backbone of the operation of a company, the utility of profitability ratios is beyond just calculating the profits. They are representative of a company’s true potential in terms of profitability and sustenance in the market.

Types of Profitability Ratios

The following are the types of profitability ratios −

Earnings Per Share

Earnings per share (EPS) offers the profitability of a company from the viewpoint of an ordinary shareholder. As the name suggests, it shows how much earnings an ordinary share has earned against the total net profit of the company. Investors consider EPS as a very important benchmark of a company’s performance.

The Earnings Per Share of a company is given as follows −

$$mathrm{mathrm{EPS}:=:frac{mathrm{Net: Profit}}{mathrm{Total :number: of :outstanding :shares}}}$$

Return on Equity

Return on Equity (ROE) measures the profitability obtained from the equity invested in a company. ROE also gives the measure of how profitably the owner’s equity has been used to generate the revenues of a company. The higher the ROE, the better is the financial condition of the company.

The Return on Equity is given as follows −

$$mathrm{mathrm{ROE}:=:frac{mathrm{ Profit:after:Tax}}{mathrm{Net:Worth}}}$$

Dividend Per Share

DPS offers the amount of dividend distributed to the shareholders. As the name suggests, the amount is obtained on a per-share basis. In simpler words, it gives the value of the dividend that has been offered per share by the company.

The Dividend Per Share is given as follows −

$$mathrm{mathrm{DPS}:=:frac{mathrm{Total: amount: of :dividend: distributed: to: shareholders }}{mathrm{Total: outstanding: shares}}}$$

Return on Capital Employed

This ratio offers the percentage return a company gets from the funds invested in the company by its owners. The Return on Capital Employed is given as follows −

$$mathrm{mathrm{ROCE}:=:frac{mathrm{left (Net :operating :profit/ :Capital: employed right )}}{mathrm{Capital :employed}}:times 100}$$

Price Earnings Ratio

Price Earnings Ratio is used to check whether the shares are under or overvalued. It also indicates the expectation of the probable earnings or the period of payback to the investors.

Return on Assets

ROA calculates the earnings obtained per rupee of the amount invested in a project of a company. The higher the amount of ROA, the better it is because a higher amount indicates that the company generates better returns per rupee of the amount invested.

$$mathrm{mathrm{ROA}:=:frac{mathrm{Net :profit }}{mathrm{Total :Assets}}}$$

Net Profit Margin

Net Profit Margin measures the profitability of a company taking into consideration of all direct and indirect expenses.

$$mathrm{mathrm{Net: Profit: Margin}:=:frac{mathrm{Net :profit}}{mathrm{Sales}}:times 100}$$

Gross Profit Margin

It is used to calculate the marginal profit or the segment revenue of a company. A higher ratio is an indicator of better company performance.

$$mathrm{mathrm{Gross: Profit :Margin}:=:frac{mathrm{left (Gross: Profit / Sales right )}}{mathrm{Sales}}:times 100}$$

Importance of Profitability Ratios

Profitable Ratio helps or benefits a company in the following ways −

Helps in Overall Profitability

These ratios show the overall profitability of a company that indicates the performance of the company.

Helps in Prediction of Profitability

Profitability ratios can be used to understand the future trend of profitability and can be a boon for better resource allocation.

Helps in Problem Indication

The profitability ratios can show the grey areas of operation; thereby indicating the points of problems that need to be resolved.

Helps Saving Money

These ratios indicate whether a new investment will be worth it or not, and hence saves money by cancelling investment in projects that aren’t profitable.

Final Measure of Profitability

Profitability ratios are the final measure of profitability, and cannot be skipped if a true measure of the company has to be ascertained.

Director/ Head – Risk Analytics & Modelling

Task Info :

About the Company:

We are the leading A+/A1+ rated non-banking finance company providing the crucial link between debt capital markets and high quality originators who reach the emerging consumer andbusiness owner. Using its deep experience, unrivalled data, proven and proprietary risk management processes and innovative structured finance techniques we continues to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns to a growing client base of Indian and international investors keen to tap into a growing market opportunity.

We have employed talented capital market professionals with extensive experience to help it deliver this proposition. By allowing lenders in remote areas of India to increase the volume and lower the cost of borrowing for low-income and financially excluded families and businesses, our activities are now benefiting some 15 million individuals. The company also helps its clients build better operating and oversight systems and to implement customer protection principles, thus improving the quality of products and services that end borrowers chúng tôi date, we have completed over 300 rated capital market transactions and raised over USD 3 billion in financing for its clients with a zero delinquency track record. 

Portfolio Risk Management

Consisting of plain vanilla term loans, structured finance transactions, guarantees, risk participations and other funded and unfunded credit exposures as well as a nascent retail portfolio- consisting of microfinance, SBL loans originated directly on our book.

Oversee the performance management team to measure the risk and performance of underlying loans in structured finance transactions and direct origination

Continually work on the development of new models and the maintenance and improvement of existing models for risk and performance measurement

Managing the risk estimation and evaluation of proposed structured finance transactions

Managing the repository of structured finance transaction structures, original excel models and legal documents of all settled transactions and the process of reconciling structured finance transactions – the collections on underlying portfolio, pay-in to the SPV and payouts to the investors

Revising future cash flows of pools and transaction cashflow to investors for securitization and other structured finance transactions on a periodic basis

Managing the relationship with the Trustee, Originators-cum-Servicers and Investors on issues related to the collections and payments pertaining to the structured finance transactions

Managing the pool maturity, pool clean up and transaction maturity for all structured finance transactions with the Trustee

Managing the risk, performance and exposure reporting framework for daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly reporting to various stakeholders including but not limited to- credit committee, risk committee, board of directors, other teams, rating agency, and regulatory bodies

Managing the ad-hoc reporting requirements from various stakeholders including but not limited to originators, servicers, trustees, lenders, investors, rating agencies and regulators.

Data Analytics

Develop statistical and machine learning models to identify credit drivers and formulate business strategy such pool selection criteria, quantifying the required credit enhancement and origination strategy

Guide the Risk Analytics and Modelling team to adopt cutting age data analytics tools and technology to build more efficient models

Ensure high quality data management of loan performance, borrower and originator data of own portfolio, and from other sources using appropriate database resources

Risk Mitigation – Product Development

Collaborate with structuring team and other internal team members to develop innovative financial structures to allow efficient risk transfer from borrowers to risk aggregators and in turn offer affordable finance to borrowers and desired risk-return to investors as well as to improvise existing structures to deliver better value to clients

Develop, implement and maintain internal rating models to provide risk based rating of transactions Research

Design and drive research on questions related to risk management and financial access for low income households and enterprises based on performance data of own portfolio, data subscribed from credit bureaus and other sources

Document, publish, present and share the research in the form of research papers, articles, blogs, conference papers and presentations

Collaborate with other team members to share our understanding of the risk in sectors we work in with external stakeholders

Essential Skills and Experience

The successful candidate

1.  Must be passionate about managing, mentoring and developing a high performance risk analytics and modelling team, while possessing the personal qualities and skills to foster an innovative, forward looking, collaborative and cohesive team culture

2. Will hold a Doctoral or Master’s degree in a quantitative field such as statistics, econometrics, economics, mathematical finance, finance, or applied science such as physics

3. Should have a minimum of 7-10 years of work experience in Risk Analytics preferably in financial services company in a team lead/team management role

4. Must have sound understanding and thorough working knowledge of financial risk management frameworks appropriate for a financial services company

5. Must have in-depth understanding of structure finance products such as securitization, CBOs and guarantees

6. Must have strong background in probability and statistics

Must have practical experience of developing and leading a team to develop statistical and machine learning algorithms in R/Stata/Matlab/Python and using SQL

8. Should have experience in developing data driven analytics and decision making frameworks from scratch for structured as well as unstructured data

10. Must demonstrate high level of oral and written communication skills including but not limited presentations, leading meetings with different stakeholders and reporting to the Risk Committee and the Board of directors

11. Must be a problem solver and should be an expert in dealing with ambiguous, amorphous and abstract business problems

7.

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Related

Types Of Java References With Examples

Introduction to Java References Types of Java References with Examples

There are four types of java references based on the Garbage Collector’s behaviour on the references.

Strong References: This is the default reference in java. Strong references can be created when an object is defined regularly.

Weak References: This reference is to be explicitly specified. The weak references can be created by using java.lang.ref.WeakReference class.

Soft References: Soft references can be created by using lang.ref.SoftReference class.

Phantom References: the phantom references can be created by using lang.ref.PhantomReference class.

1. Strong References

A strong reference is usually we use while we write the java code or we create an object. An object which has strong reference and active in the memory is not eligible for garbage collection, an object which has strongly referenced points to null can be garbage collected. For example, the below code snippet where variable ob is the object of the type ClassA.

ClassA ob = new ClassA();

An ‘ob’ object is having a strong reference to which is pointing to class ClassA; this object can not be garbage collected because an ob is an active object.

If reference ‘ob’ point to null as below –

ob = null;

Now the object is not referencing to class ClassA; an object is eligible for garbage collection now.

Example

Code:

package p1; class ClassA { } public class Demo { public static void main( String[] arg ) { ClassA ob = new ClassA(); System.out.println(ob); ob = null; System.out.println(ob); } }

Output:

2. Weak References ClassA ob = new ClassA();

Now the object is weak referencing to class ClassA, an object is now available for garbage collection, and it is garbage collected when JVM runs garbage collection thread.

Example

Code:

package p1; import java.lang.ref.WeakReference; class ClassA { } public class Demo { public static void main( String[] arg ) { ClassA ob = new ClassA();  System.out.println(ob); ob = null; System.out.println(ob); ob = weakob.get(); System.out.println(ob); } }

Output:

3. Soft References

The object of soft reference is not eligible for garbage collection until JVM runs out of memory or JVM badly needs memory. The weak references can be created by class lang.ref.SoftReference. For example, the soft reference can create Similarly to weak reference.

Example package p1; import java.lang.ref.SoftReference; class ClassA { } public class Demo { public static void main( String[] arg ) { ClassA ob = new ClassA();// default reference or Strong Reference System.out.println(ob); ob = null; System.out.println(ob); ob = softob.get(); System.out.println(ob); } }

Output:

4. Phantom References

An object of phantom reference is available for garbage collection, but before garbage collecting it, an object is put in a reference queue named as ‘reference queue’ by the JVM; after finalize() function call on the object. The weak references can be created by class chúng tôi PhantomReference.

Example

Code:

package p1; import java.lang.ref.ReferenceQueue; import java.lang.ref.PhantomReference; class ClassA { } public class Demo { public static void main( String[] arg ) { ClassA ob = new ClassA();  System.out.println(ob); ob = null; System.out.println(ob); ob = phantomob.get(); System.out.println(ob); } }

Output:

Recommended Articles

This is a guide to Java References. Here we also discuss the Introduction and types of java references along with different examples and their code implementation. You may also have a look at the following articles to learn more –

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